Risk Overview
Frequent and longer-lasting extreme cold weather is posing significant challenges for electricity generation and natural gas supplies. Power plants are facing more unexpected outages during cold snaps because of equipment freezing and insufficient natural gas supplies. NERC Reliability Standards aim to address these issues by requiring power plant operators to have plans for extreme cold weather. Additionally, there has been more cooperation between the electric and natural gas industries, partly due to the Gas-Electric Harmonization Forum led by the North American Energy Standards Board, however, further efforts are needed to implement the recommendations from a report published by the board in 2023.
Drivers and Trends
- Insufficient winterization of generation assets and natural gas infrastructure, especially in the southern MRO region, leading to equipment failures and natural gas shortages during extreme cold weather.
- Increased reliance on natural gas for electricity generation during extreme cold, coupled with higher consumer demand, resulting in natural gas shortages to natural gas power plants.
- Misalignment between the timing of natural gas procurement and electric generation orders to go online, particularly with short lead times or during weekends and holidays.
- Accelerated retirement of traditional fuel driven on-demand power plants, reducing available power supply and increasing vulnerability to energy losses during extreme cold weather.
- Record high natural gas consumption in January 2024 due to an arctic cold snap
Actions to Address Risk
- Participate in MRO’s Generator Winterization Program to prepare for extreme cold weather by assessing and improving winterization methods.
- Follow NERC’s Reliability Guideline on Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness to ensure generating plants are ready for extreme cold conditions.
- Promote collaboration between the electric and gas industries to enhance reliability and implement recommendations from the Gas-Electric Harmonization Forum.
- Consider the increased risk of forced outages due to extreme cold when planning generation reserve margins.
- Comply with NERC Reliability Standard EOP-012-2 by developing cold weather preparedness plans and implementing freeze protection measures for generating units, effective October 1, 2024, with full enforcement by October 1, 2025.
Related Resources
- NERC’s 2023-24 Winter Reliability Assessment identifies potential risks and areas of concern, such as the increased reliance on natural gas for electricity generation and the challenges posed by extreme weather conditions. The report emphasizes the need for improved winterization of power plants and natural gas infrastructure to prevent outages and ensure a stable electricity supply. It also highlights the importance of coordination between electric and gas industries to enhance overall grid reliability.
- Joint FERC, NERC Report on Lesson from Winter Storm Elliot examines the electricity outages that affected millions during the Christmas 2022 storm. The report highlights the need for improved cold weather reliability standards for both electricity and natural gas infrastructure. It calls for better winterization of power plants and natural gas systems, enhanced coordination between the gas and electric industries, and the establishment of enforceable gas reliability standards. The report also recommends ongoing monitoring and independent reviews to prevent future electricity outages. Watch the FERC-NERC-Regional Entity Joint Inquiry Into Winter Storm Elliot presentation.
- Joint FERC, NERC Report on Winter Storm Uri report highlights the need for stronger winterization measures for both electricity and natural gas systems. The report examines the widespread power outages caused by Winter Storm Uri, which left millions without power in Texas and other parts of the South Central U.S. It emphasizes the importance of improving cold weather preparedness and coordination between the electric and gas industries to prevent future blackouts. Key recommendations include enhancing reliability standards, protecting critical components from freezing, and ensuring a reliable fuel supply during extreme weather events. Watch the February 2021 Cold Weather Grid Operations: Preliminary Findings and Recommendations presentation.
